A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
