Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
